Fade the Scoreboard: Under Predicted in Indiana State vs. Purdue
West Lafayette, IN – Despite Purdue being a massive 35.5-point favorite, betting analyst Geoff Clark recommends betting the Under in Friday’s Week 1 matchup against Indiana State at 7 p.m. ET. Clark believes this defensive performance is a one-week rental and shouldn’t be expected to continue throughout the season.
Purdue's History and Challenging Schedule
Purdue dominated Indiana State in previous matchups, winning 49-0 in 2024 and 56-0 in 2022, both as significant favorites. Last season, the Boilermakers struggled, finishing with a 2-10 record and an 0-9 mark in Big Ten play. They face the 18th-toughest schedule in the nation this year, according to ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, making this game likely their only victory.
Why the Under is the Smart Play
Blowouts often lead to Under performances in college football. Coaches tend to conserve plays when leading by a significant margin, and defenses remain engaged with backups vying for attention. Clark notes Purdue’s 4-1 record to the Under in its last five games as a favorite, suggesting they thrive on matchups against weaker opponents. He suggests a same-game parlay combining Purdue -35.5 with the Under 56.5, noting a higher payout than betting Purdue to cover the spread with the Over.
Current Odds
- Spread: Indiana State +35.5 | Purdue -35.5
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (52%) | Under 56.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Indiana State 2% | Purdue 99%